Caldaro.wordpress.com Website Review

Last Monday started with a sharp rally on positive trade news. After closing at 3169 the previous week, SPX jumped to 3198 and then spent the rest of Monday through Wednesday churning between 3191 and 3198 amid pre-impeachment uncertainty.  Thursday saw the market move out of the consolidation range to the upside in a breakout move that carried to 3226 on Friday.  SPX finished the week at 3221, another Economic reports continued to come in quite positive, all above jobs and housing data.  Job openings were up 7.3m vs 7m, and weekly jobless claims came in 234k vs 252k.  The constant improvement in housing starts (annualized 1,365k in Nov. vs 1,323k in Oct. vs 478k at April 2009 low), accompanied by a new yearly high in home builder sentiment (HMI 76 vs 71 in Nov.), and a decline in existing home sales by 1.7% in November because of low inventory levels could be a sign, that the housing market has bottomed.  Further positive or inline reports: industrial production (1.1% in Nov. vs. 1.08% in Oct.); capacity utilization (77.3% vs. 76.6% in Oct.); Empire State Manufacturing Survey (3.5 vs 2.9 Nov); leading indicators unchanged; Michigan Consumer Sentiment (99.3 vs 96.8 in Nov.); PCE index (0.2%; ex food and energy 0.1%); Q3 GDP unchanged at 2.1%, even though Atlanta Fed forecasts Q4 GDP at 2.3%.  WLEI was flat at 2.19%, but Philadelphia FED Business Outlook came in 0.3 vs 10.4 in November. Coming Christmas week is light on economic data, with new home sales released on Monday, durable goods orders on Tuesday, and jobless claims and investor confidence on Thursday. Merry Christmas all! The slow but steady improvement of the economy is reflected by the WLEI Index, which has been rising for a while and stayed at 2.2 for In the US, the long-term count remains unchanged with the Super Cycle SC2 low in March 2009.  Primary I concluded in mid-2015 with Primary II concluding in early 2016.  Primary wave III has been underway since February 2016 with the Major wave 1 high occurring in October